Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 14.07.2026
NeutralCPI
🟡 Negative — BTC is still below the control level, ETF demand flipped to outflows, and Waller kept the Fed risk two-sided.
Yesterday I expected the correction case to be confirmed only if BTC failed to regain 64,000 and CPI beat the prior 4.17% reading. So far: BTC failed; CPI is still pending. The new complication is a roughly 425 million BTC ETF outflow, which makes the inflation hurdle less forgiving.
BTC has stabilized near 62,670, but the recovery lacks sponsorship. Fear is back at 22, stablecoin supply is shrinking, and crypto volatility is low rather than cleansing. Liquidity is still a cushion near its recent highs, yet Waller’s warning that hikes remain possible limits how much investors can lean on that cushion before CPI.
The verdict is narrow: a hot CPI with BTC still under the control level confirms correction. A softer print plus a reclaim turns yesterday’s break into a false signal.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) CPI versus 4.17%: above it while BTC remains below the control level → correction confirmed; below it with BTC above the control level → breakdown likely false.
2) Next BTC ETF print: outflow above 200 million → institutions still de-risking; inflow above that threshold → demand repair begins.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 120.50 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.56% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.21% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.32% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 4.17% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.82% | — |
| VIX | 15.03 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.35% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.09% | +0.23% |
| BTC Price | $62,669 | +1.34% |
| BTC Return 24h | 0.00% | +100.00% |
| BTC Return 7d | -0.61% | +83.24% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 27.59% | -17.20% |
| Fear & Greed | 22 | -21.43% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.74% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 774.06% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 0.80% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 23.05% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,960.74% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -424.66% | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -492.95% | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | 74.79% | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,515.34 | — |
| DeFi TVL | 73.50% | +0.41% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | 302.40% | -0.33% |
| USDT Peg | 1.00% | -0.01% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.60% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 0.20% | — |
| ETH Milestone | 1.50% | +15.38% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 19.50% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14 | CPI YoY | — | 4.20 |