Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 15.07.2026
NeutralBTC REBOUND
🟡 Positive — BTC is back above 64k, and spot ETF demand turned positive.
Yesterday I expected the CPI/BTC test to decide whether the breakdown below 64k would stick. We got the price repair: BTC reclaimed the level and ETFs printed a 181m inflow; the CPI evidence is less clean in this data pack because the hard CPI series is stale, though news flow points to softer inflation and a weaker dollar. That weakens the correction call without proving a macro regime shift.
The catch: the rebound is still crypto-led. Weekly ETF flow remains negative, stablecoin supply is still depressed, and the latest dollar, yield and VIX readings are old rather than fresh confirmation. High-impact headlines also keep the bar for confidence high: Fed hike chatter and Waller's inflation warning sit next to reports of fresh U.S.-Iran strikes. So the tape has repaired; it has not been stress-tested.
The useful tell is volatility. BTC vol remains below 30%, so this is still a breakout from compression, not a disorderly chase. The clean hook: funds flipped from heavy selling to buying in one print, but cash on crypto rails has not followed.
WHAT TO WATCH
1) BTC above 64k at the next review and another BTC ETF inflow would confirm sponsorship; below 64k with an ETF outflow would make today a squeeze.
2) Stablecoin market cap above 302.5b would show fresh crypto cash; below that level keeps the rebound dependent on price momentum.
3) ETH milestone probability holding above 80% would keep the speculative bid concentrated in ETH; a break below 80% while BTC stalls would argue against broad risk-on.
Market State
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 120.50 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.62% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.26% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.36% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.46% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.57% | — |
| VIX | 17.16 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.36% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.34% | +0.05% |
| BTC Price | $64,703 | +0.13% |
| BTC Return 24h | 3.25% | -21.88% |
| BTC Return 7d | 3.14% | +60.20% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 29.05% | -20.65% |
| Fear & Greed | 25 | +13.64% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | 6.74% | — |
| Treasury General Account | 774.06% | — |
| Reverse Repo | 0.28% | — |
| M2 Money Supply | 23.05% | — |
| Net Liquidity | 5,961.26% | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | 181.08% | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -333.30% | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | 77.96% | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,543.59 | — |
| DeFi TVL | 75.40% | -0.13% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | 302.50% | +0.03% |
| USDT Peg | 1.00% | -0.02% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.60% | -14.29% |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 0.20% | -33.33% |
| ETH Milestone | 89.50% | +165.58% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 19.50% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14 | CPI YoY | — | 4.20 |