Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 15.08.2026
NeutralBROAD SELLOFF
🔴 Negative — BTC, dominance and liquidity are falling at the same time
BTC falling alongside its dominance looks worse than a normal rotation into altcoins. If capital were moving out of bitcoin into riskier tokens, dominance would be declining while demand inside crypto stayed alive. The current setup looks closer to a move into stablecoins: the market is selling crypto risk as a whole.
Liquidity confirms the signal: net liquidity fell from 5.84 to 5.80, down about 44, or 0.75%. Against that backdrop, the market has less capacity to absorb selling without price drawdowns. Geopolitics adds another risk filter: new ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz support the oil premium, and that weighs on risk appetite.
The backdrop is not fully bearish: Fear & Greed rose from 30 to 34, although it remains in the fear zone. The rates channel is still offering almost no help — the probability of a Fed rate cut is at 1.6%, while the withdrawal of the DOT ETF filing is a reminder that institutional demand beyond BTC remains selective.
WHAT TO WATCH
A BTC close above 64,000 by tomorrow would weaken the broad-selloff scenario; a close below that level would keep pressure on crypto risk in place.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 119.06 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.63% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.15% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.39% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.30% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 14.63 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.48% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.10% | -0.04% |
| BTC Price | $62,989 | +0.25% |
| BTC Return 24h | -0.50% | +48.98% |
| BTC Return 7d | -3.10% | +0.32% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 22.96% | +3.10% |
| Fear & Greed | 34 | +17.24% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.76T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $963.95B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.25B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.16T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,795.80B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -$131.13M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -$233.23M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $77.27B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,785.76 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $75.10B | +0.27% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $302.10B | — |
| USDT Peg | $0.9991 | -0.01% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 1.60% | +6.67% |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 0.20% | — |
| ETH Milestone | 0.50% | — |
| Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | 0.70% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12 | CPI YoY | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| Aug 12 | Core CPI YoY | 2.50 | 2.60 |