Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 16.08.2026
NeutralETF DEMAND GAP
🟡 Neutral — Access is expanding, but funds have seen capital outflows for three straight days
The SEC approved the first multi-asset crypto ETF with a 70% Bitcoin allocation, yet BTC funds have recorded outflows for three consecutive days. JPMorgan’s increased holdings in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, along with new XRP exposure, point to selective institutional interest but have yet to change the broader direction of capital flows. Fear still hangs over the market: the index remains at 34, while the probability of a Fed rate cut is just 1.7%, so broader access alone does not guarantee inflows.
WHAT TO WATCH
Daily BTC fund flows need to close above zero on August 17. A positive reading would confirm a shift from product access to actual demand.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 119.06 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.63% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.15% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.39% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.30% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 14.63 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.48% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.18% | +0.04% |
| BTC Price | $63,041 | -0.06% |
| BTC Return 24h | -0.04% | -110.26% |
| BTC Return 7d | -2.63% | +6.41% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 21.78% | -0.18% |
| Fear & Greed | 34 | — |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.76T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $963.95B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.25B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.16T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,795.80B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -$57.63M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -$389.71M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $76.61B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,785.76 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $75.10B | — |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $301.80B | +0.13% |
| USDT Peg | $0.9992 | +0.01% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 1.70% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 0.20% | — |
| ETH Milestone | 0.40% | -42.86% |
| Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | 0.70% | — |