Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 31.08.2026
Risk OnGEOPOLITICAL RISK PREMIUM
🔴 Negative — geopolitical escalation is cooling appetite for crypto risk.
US strikes on Iran after a weeks-long lull, followed by Tehran’s attack on American bases in Jordan, have raised the risk premium through oil and a broader shift away from risk. Crypto has moved from risk-on to neutral, although the Fear & Greed Index remains at 62, still in greed territory. The monetary backdrop offers no cushion: the probability of a Fed rate cut is just 1.1%. As long as the escalation persists, demand for crypto risk will remain more cautious.
WHAT TO WATCH
A close in the Fear & Greed Index below 62 on September 1 would confirm further cooling. The geopolitical escalation needs to persist; otherwise, the risk-off move may prove short-lived.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.06 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.67% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.20% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.34% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.30% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 14.51 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.47% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 59.64% | +0.10% |
| BTC Price | $77,613 | -1.03% |
| BTC Return 24h | -0.62% | -338.46% |
| BTC Return 7d | 0.97% | -9.35% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 47.07% | +9.03% |
| Fear & Greed | 62 | -10.14% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.73T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $950.74B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.18B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.22T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,779.99B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -$201.81M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $924.48M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $97.59B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,711.76 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $87.20B | -1.47% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $306.20B | +0.03% |
| USDT Peg | $0.9998 | -0.01% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 1.10% | +10.00% |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 0.10% | — |
| ETH ≥ $2,600 | 2.70% | -70.00% |
| Altseason Barometer | 22 | -18.52% |
| Crypto Market Cap | $2.60T | -1.29% |