Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 21.09.2026
Risk OnVOLATILITY COMPRESSION
🟡 Neutral — BTC is rising as volatility declines, leaving the move unconfirmed.
There is no new directional signal: BTC gained 1.22% over 24 hours, but 30-day volatility fell from 39.09 to 35.11; the next test is a return above 39.09 by September 22. Risk appetite has held for a fourth day, although escalating threats to Russian and Saudi oil infrastructure are keeping the geopolitical risk premium in place; US recession odds of 8% are not weighing on the market for now.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.21 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.94% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.67% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.61% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.35% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.45% | — |
| VIX | 15.44 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.27% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 58.15% | -0.92% |
| BTC Price | $81,382 | +0.24% |
| BTC Return 24h | 1.22% | +2,540.00% |
| BTC Return 7d | 4.81% | -18.06% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 35.11% | -8.83% |
| Fear & Greed | 70 | -1.41% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.75T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $877.03B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.58B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.22T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,868.90B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | $433.03M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $6.21M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $102.53B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,637.76 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $94.00B | +0.43% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $305.90B | -0.52% |
| USDT Peg | $0.9997 | — |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.90% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 1.30% | +30.00% |
| ETH ≥ $3,100 | 10.20% | -87.01% |
| Altseason Barometer | 35 | +12.90% |
| Crypto Market Cap | $2.80T | +1.07% |
| US Recession Odds | 8.00% | — |