Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 22.09.2026
NeutralBITCOIN CONCENTRATION
🟢 Positive — The rally accelerated, but altcoin participation remains narrow
Bitcoin gained 4.95% to around $85,400. Its dominance rose from 58.15% to 58.84%, while the altseason barometer fell from 35 to 27. Capital remains concentrated in BTC, with no broad rotation yet.
Hawkish Fed rate expectations and oil risks linked to the Strait of Hormuz are hanging over the market, although the probability of a US recession is estimated at just 8.5%. The Fear & Greed Index reached 78 and entered extreme greed territory—the momentum is strong, but sensitivity to negative news is rising.
The counterpoint is Ethereum, which gained 3.22% on ETF inflows and rotation out of BTC. This points to a localized broadening in demand, but rising Bitcoin dominance and the falling altseason barometer do not yet confirm a sustained rotation into the broader market.
WHAT TO WATCH
A September 23 close above 58.84% in Bitcoin dominance would confirm that capital remains concentrated. Holding above this level would show that the momentum remains focused on BTC.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 119.51 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.01% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.76% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.68% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.35% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.45% | — |
| VIX | 14.81 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.25% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 58.84% | +0.03% |
| BTC Price | $85,411 | -1.17% |
| BTC Return 24h | 4.96% | -22.86% |
| BTC Return 7d | 10.13% | +0.90% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 37.57% | -13.29% |
| Fear & Greed | 78 | +11.43% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.75T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $877.03B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.58B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.22T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,868.89B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | $433.03M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $6.21M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $102.53B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,764.70 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $96.10B | -0.72% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $306.90B | -0.03% |
| USDT Peg | $0.9997 | -0.01% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.80% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 3.20% | -27.27% |
| ETH ≥ $2,900 | 41.00% | -27.43% |
| Altseason Barometer | 27 | -10.00% |
| Crypto Market Cap | $2.90T | -1.28% |
| US Recession Odds | 8.50% | +30.77% |