Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 24.09.2026
Risk OnYIELD SPIKE
🔴 Negative — The macro shock is overwhelming ETF demand and eroding risk appetite
US Treasury yields approached a twenty-year high, while oil climbed above $103 per barrel. Rising inflation concerns hit risk assets: Bitcoin fell 3.6%, from $87,172 to $84,003, while total crypto market capitalization declined 3.6% to 2.86.
The pressure is coming through expectations of tighter financial conditions. Meanwhile, weekly Bitcoin ETF flows rose from roughly 845 to 2,653, but institutional demand was not enough to support the price.
The US-China trade truce through January 10 is containing external risk, while the probability of a US recession stands at just 8.5%. For now, neither offsets the shock from oil and yields. If they remain elevated, the macro backdrop will continue to outweigh ETF inflows; if institutional demand pushes Bitcoin back above yesterday’s level, the pressure will begin to ease.
WHAT TO WATCH
A Bitcoin close above $87,172 on September 25 will be the first test of a recovery. It would show that ETF demand has outweighed the macro shock.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 119.51 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.96% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.71% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.63% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.35% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.45% | — |
| VIX | 14.21 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.25% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 58.64% | -0.36% |
| BTC Price | $84,003 | -0.66% |
| BTC Return 24h | -3.62% | -100.00% |
| BTC Return 7d | 9.84% | -16.68% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 37.82% | -13.73% |
| Fear & Greed | 71 | — |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.75T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $877.03B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.46B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.34T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,869.01B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | $346.98M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $2,653.16M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $108.66B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,706.03 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $95.10B | +0.32% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $308.30B | +0.49% |
| USDT Peg | $0.9998 | -0.01% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.80% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 1.10% | -26.67% |
| ETH ≥ $3,500 | 35.50% | -1.39% |
| Altseason Barometer | 27 | — |
| Crypto Market Cap | $2.86T | -0.55% |
| US Recession Odds | 8.50% | — |