Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 25.09.2026
NeutralLIQUIDITY SQUEEZE
🔴 Negative — Liquidity outflows continue to weigh on crypto risk
Net liquidity fell from 5,869 to 5,770 as the US Treasury General Account rose from 877 to 977. The broader regime improved to neutral, but the daily liquidity contraction does not yet confirm a reversal. An oil shock is hanging over markets: Brent above $106 is adding to inflation risks, while the 30-year US Treasury yield has reached its highest level since 2004. A two-month extension of the US-China trade truce offers some relief, with US recession odds at 11.5%. For crypto, expensive oil and elevated yields still outweigh the improvement in overall sentiment.
WHAT TO WATCH
A Bitcoin close above 87,172 on September 26 would confirm the market’s resilience to the liquidity squeeze. A sixth consecutive day of inflows into BTC funds is cushioning downside risk.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 119.51 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.11% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.85% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.76% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.35% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.45% | — |
| VIX | 14.21 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.26% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 58.55% | -0.03% |
| BTC Price | $84,180 | -0.08% |
| BTC Return 24h | 0.18% | +150.00% |
| BTC Return 7d | 8.64% | -16.44% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 37.05% | -15.58% |
| Fear & Greed | 71 | — |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.75T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $977.08B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.63B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.34T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,769.99B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | $190.65M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $2,684.35M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $108.92B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,704.13 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $95.00B | -0.21% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $307.10B | -0.29% |
| USDT Peg | $0.9997 | — |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.70% | -12.50% |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 0.80% | — |
| ETH ≥ $2,900 | 4.40% | +2.33% |
| Altseason Barometer | 29 | +3.57% |
| Crypto Market Cap | $2.88T | -0.08% |
| US Recession Odds | 11.50% | +21.05% |