Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 28.09.2026
Risk OffQUIET INFLOW
🟡 Neutral — inflows remain steady, but volatility continues to decline.
BTC funds have recorded inflows for seven consecutive days, yet Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility fell from 36.94 to 35.87. The Fear & Greed Index rose from 70 to 74, but improving sentiment has yet to wake the market. Geopolitical risk around Hormuz is keeping a premium in oil, while the probability of a US recession stands at just 9.5% and is not yet weighing on risk appetite.
WHAT TO WATCH
A close in 30-day volatility above 36.94 by September 29 would confirm that the market is coming back to life. Improving sentiment still needs confirmation from an expansion in volatility.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 119.51 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.18% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.87% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.85% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.35% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.45% | — |
| VIX | 14.21 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.31% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 58.70% | -0.14% |
| BTC Price | $83,484 | -0.83% |
| BTC Return 24h | -0.98% | -988.89% |
| BTC Return 7d | 2.59% | -29.62% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 35.87% | -13.92% |
| Fear & Greed | 74 | +5.71% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.75T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $977.08B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.58B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.34T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,770.04B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | $134.47M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $2,385.79M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $108.42B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,743.41 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $95.10B | -0.83% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $308.00B | +0.03% |
| USDT Peg | $0.9998 | — |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.70% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 0.30% | -25.00% |
| ETH ≥ $3,500 | 35.00% | -6.67% |
| Altseason Barometer | 25 | -3.85% |
| Crypto Market Cap | $2.85T | -0.67% |
| US Recession Odds | 9.50% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.70 | 3.40 |