Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 29.09.2026
Risk OffWEEKLY REVERSAL
🔴 Negative — BTC returns turned negative despite continued inflows
BTC’s seven-day return reversed from 2.59% to −2.63%, while the risk-off regime deepened on its sixth day. Even seven consecutive days of inflows into Bitcoin funds failed to sustain momentum. U.S.-China tariff cuts are supporting the broader backdrop, but crypto has yet to follow: the Fear & Greed Index remains in greed territory at 73, while the probability of a U.S. recession is estimated at just 9.5%. Fund demand is present, but price confirmation is not.
WHAT TO WATCH
If BTC’s seven-day return remains below zero through September 30, price weakness will persist. Fund inflows have yet to be confirmed by price.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 120.33 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.17% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.81% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.83% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.35% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.45% | — |
| VIX | 14.21 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.36% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 58.36% | +0.09% |
| BTC Price | $83,180 | -0.40% |
| BTC Return 24h | -0.36% | +53.85% |
| BTC Return 7d | -2.63% | +21.96% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 35.12% | -16.00% |
| Fear & Greed | 73 | -1.35% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.75T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $977.08B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.85B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.34T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,769.77B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | $134.47M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $2,385.79M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $108.42B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,683.69 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $94.50B | -0.53% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $308.20B | — |
| USDT Peg | $0.9997 | — |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.70% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 0.20% | — |
| ETH ≥ $2,800 | 13.50% | -34.15% |
| Altseason Barometer | 30 | +11.11% |
| Crypto Market Cap | $2.86T | -0.44% |
| US Recession Odds | 9.50% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.70 | 3.40 |