Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 05.10.2026
Risk OnVOLATILITY COMPRESSION
🟡 Neutral — Gains are slowing, but there is not enough evidence of a reversal yet
Bitcoin’s rally is losing momentum: thirty-day volatility fell from 36.4% to 34.2%, while the daily gain slowed from 3% to 0.8%. Risk appetite remains intact, but price gains are not accelerating: for now, this is fading momentum, not a confirmed reversal. Plans to include staking in the proposed BNB ETF and approval of leveraged crypto products offer new channels for demand, but a pause in reviews of new ETFs could delay expected inflows. Prediction markets put the probability of a US recession at 9.5% — that risk is not dominating expectations for now.
WHAT TO WATCH
If BTC’s thirty-day volatility closes below 34.2% on October 6, the compression will continue. Compression alone does not determine the direction of the next move.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 120.33 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.24% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.78% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.88% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.75% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.35% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.45% | — |
| VIX | 16.39 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.46% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 59.20% | -0.13% |
| BTC Price | $85,515 | -1.03% |
| BTC Return 24h | 0.84% | -56.48% |
| BTC Return 7d | 2.43% | -8.30% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 34.20% | -7.89% |
| Fear & Greed | 70 | +7.69% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.74T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $948.67B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $1.50B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.34T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,792.83B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | $189.84M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $241.09M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $108.89B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,722.72 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $96.90B | +0.52% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $309.00B | — |
| USDT Peg | $0.9998 | -0.01% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.70% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 11.50% | +21.05% |
| ETH ≥ $4,000 | 12.50% | +220.51% |
| Altseason Barometer | 26 | +8.33% |
| Crypto Market Cap | $2.90T | -0.94% |
| US Recession Odds | 9.50% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | Non-Farm Payrolls | 90.00 | 133.00 |
| Oct 7 | FOMC Minutes | — | — |