Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 02.10.2026
NeutralETF DEMAND RETURNS
🟢 Positive — BTC’s rise is backed by ETF inflows and stronger dominance
Bitcoin ETF flows swung from -149 to +103, while BTC gained 3.73%, rising from roughly $83.5K to $86.6K. Dominance increased from 58.3% to 58.8%, showing that capital was concentrating in bitcoin rather than spreading across the broader crypto market.
Geopolitics remains an overhang: the deployment of a third US aircraft carrier to the Middle East sustains the risk of higher oil prices and stronger demand for defensive assets. Meanwhile, expectations of a Fed rate hike are fading, US recession odds stand at 9.5%, and the Fear & Greed Index at 72 signals greed.
The broader backdrop has deteriorated to neutral, so one day of inflows is not enough to establish a durable uptrend. Crypto-specific demand is outweighing that risk for now, but prediction markets assign only a 13.5% probability of BTC reaching $100K.
WHAT TO WATCH
A close above $86,577 on October 3 would confirm further upside. Confirmation would be stronger if ETF flows remain positive.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 120.33 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.29% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.88% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.93% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.75% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.35% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.45% | — |
| VIX | 16.34 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.41% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 58.84% | +0.29% |
| BTC Price | $86,577 | +2.19% |
| BTC Return 24h | 3.02% | +135.94% |
| BTC Return 7d | 2.85% | +408.93% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 36.36% | -12.17% |
| Fear & Greed | 72 | -2.70% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.74T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $948.67B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.35B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.34T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,793.98B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | $102.67M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $185.71M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $109.34B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,666.45 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $95.80B | +0.31% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $308.20B | +0.13% |
| USDT Peg | $0.9997 | — |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.70% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 13.50% | +13,400.00% |
| ETH ≥ $3,500 | 35.50% | — |
| Altseason Barometer | 26 | -3.70% |
| Crypto Market Cap | $2.95T | +2.14% |
| US Recession Odds | 9.50% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| Oct 2 | Non-Farm Payrolls | 90.00 | 133.00 |