Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 09.10.2026
Risk OnCRYPTO LIQUIDITY CONTRACTION
🔴 Negative — Contraction in stablecoins and DeFi outweighs the improvement in macro liquidity.
External liquidity is rising, but liquidity within crypto is shrinking: stablecoin market capitalization fell by 3.2%, while the value of assets in DeFi declined by 2.7%. The 1.3% increase in net macro liquidity does not yet justify a positive view, as crypto’s internal indicators are moving in the opposite direction. Iran’s attacks on tankers outside the Strait of Hormuz keep the risk of higher oil and shipping costs alive, undermining sustained risk appetite. The Fed’s tougher stance on inflation limits hopes for monetary easing; approval of crypto ETFs in Thailand broadens investor access, and prediction markets still put the probability of a US recession at a low 6.5%, but neither offsets the current contraction in crypto liquidity.
WHAT TO WATCH
If stablecoin market capitalization closes below $298.8 billion on October 10, the contraction in internal liquidity will continue. However, the decline in the value of DeFi assets may reflect asset repricing, not just capital withdrawals.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 121.38 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.28% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.77% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.92% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.75% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.35% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.45% | — |
| VIX | 15.08 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.51% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 59.09% | +0.02% |
| BTC Price | $82,212 | +0.52% |
| BTC Return 24h | -0.48% | +70.19% |
| BTC Return 7d | -5.09% | -57.59% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 35.21% | -9.65% |
| Fear & Greed | 59 | -7.81% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.75T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $880.25B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.34B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.34T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,867.01B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -$487.07M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -$165.59M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $107.40B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,765.36 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $91.10B | -0.76% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $298.80B | -2.89% |
| USDT Peg | $0.9993 | — |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.60% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 3.40% | -8.11% |
| ETH ≥ $2,800 | 30.50% | +7.02% |
| Altseason Barometer | 28 | -3.45% |
| Crypto Market Cap | $2.79T | +0.31% |
| US Recession Odds | 6.50% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | FOMC Minutes | — | — |