Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 10.10.2026
Risk OnCRYPTO LIQUIDITY EXPANSION
🟢 Positive — Liquidity is growing and sentiment is improving, but funds are losing capital
Risk appetite is recovering: stablecoin market capitalization rose 2.8% to roughly $307 billion, while the Fear & Greed Index climbed from 59 to 64. More potential buying power is available, but its deployment into crypto assets remains unconfirmed: BTC funds have seen outflows for a second consecutive day. Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s threat to widen its strike zone keep the risk of higher oil and shipping costs alive, potentially cooling risk appetite. Approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum funds in Thailand broadens future market access, but the Fed’s more hawkish stance on inflation limits hopes for easier monetary conditions; prediction markets put the probability of a US recession at 6.5%. Liquidity is growing, but sustained demand has yet to materialize.
WHAT TO WATCH
An October 11 daily close with stablecoin market capitalization above $307.2 billion would confirm continued liquidity expansion. Even if that threshold is met, a return of demand through BTC funds would still require outflows to stop.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 121.38 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.22% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.75% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.87% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.75% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.35% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.45% | — |
| VIX | 15.41 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.47% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 59.10% | -0.12% |
| BTC Price | $82,621 | +0.06% |
| BTC Return 24h | 0.52% | -40.91% |
| BTC Return 7d | -2.30% | +1.29% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 35.00% | -9.70% |
| Fear & Greed | 64 | +8.47% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.75T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $880.25B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.30B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.34T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,867.05B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -$244.13M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -$512.38M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $104.91B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,811.54 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $91.90B | +0.22% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $307.20B | +0.29% |
| USDT Peg | $0.9992 | — |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.60% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 3.20% | — |
| ETH ≥ $2,800 | 0.70% | +75.00% |
| Altseason Barometer | 28 | +3.70% |
| Crypto Market Cap | $2.80T | +0.22% |
| US Recession Odds | 6.50% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | FOMC Minutes | — | — |