Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 16.10.2026
Risk OnRETURN OF RISK APPETITE
🟢 Positive — Sentiment has improved, but fund demand still lags
Risk appetite is back: the Fear & Greed Index rose from 53 to 63, entering greed territory. Yet bitcoin funds have recorded outflows for a second consecutive day — sentiment is running ahead of demand. Reports of possible escalation around Iran and strikes between Russia and Ukraine keep the risk of higher energy prices and a flight to safety in play. Meanwhile, prediction markets put the probability of a US recession at just 7.5%. The sentiment turnaround is encouraging, but its staying power remains uncertain without renewed fund inflows.
WHAT TO WATCH
A Fear & Greed Index close above 63 on October 17 would confirm further improvement in sentiment. This test would not establish that fund demand has returned.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 121.60 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.19% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.82% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.84% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.75% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.72% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.57% | — |
| VIX | 16.87 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.37% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 59.27% | -0.05% |
| BTC Price | $82,070 | -0.40% |
| BTC Return 24h | 0.63% | -37.62% |
| BTC Return 7d | -0.15% | -122.06% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 35.06% | -4.91% |
| Fear & Greed | 63 | +18.87% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.76T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $883.37B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $1.20B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.34T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,871.03B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -$244.13M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -$512.38M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $104.91B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,744.06 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $90.10B | -0.44% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $303.90B | — |
| USDT Peg | $0.9990 | -0.01% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.50% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 1.30% | -35.00% |
| ETH ≥ $3,500 | 15.50% | — |
| Altseason Barometer | 29 | +3.57% |
| Crypto Market Cap | $2.77T | -0.48% |
| US Recession Odds | 7.50% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14 | Core CPI YoY | 2.50 | 2.40 |
| Oct 14 | CPI YoY | 3.60 | 3.40 |