Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 15.10.2026
NeutralINFLATION REPRICING
🔴 Negative — Renewed rate-hike risk added to pressure on BTC
Faster US inflation in September put an October Fed rate hike back on the table. Treasury yields jumped: higher returns on safe assets make risk-taking less attractive and weigh on crypto. BTC fell around 2.6% to $81.6 thousand.
Recession concerns remain contained for now: prediction markets put the probability at 6.5%, while the Fear and Greed Index is neutral at 53. This looks more like a repricing of the cost of money than a broad retreat from risk driven by fears of a downturn.
The dollar and the Fed itself argue against a sustained hawkish shift in expectations: the dollar retreated from an 18-month high, while Fed officials tempered rate-hike bets. Pressure from higher yields has already shown up in BTC’s price, but it is too early to treat a further rate hike as a foregone conclusion.
WHAT TO WATCH
If BTC closes below $83,718.63 on October 16, it will remain below its pre-decline level. This test checks whether losses persist, not whether the sell-off accelerates further.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 121.60 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.21% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.79% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.88% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.75% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.72% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.57% | — |
| VIX | 15.27 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.42% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 59.49% | +0.37% |
| BTC Price | $81,566 | -0.01% |
| BTC Return 24h | -2.57% | -13.72% |
| BTC Return 7d | -1.26% | +35.38% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 36.16% | -8.11% |
| Fear & Greed | 53 | -14.52% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.75T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $880.25B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.20B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.34T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,867.15B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -$244.13M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -$512.38M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $104.91B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,718.94 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $89.00B | -0.89% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $304.40B | — |
| USDT Peg | $0.9990 | -0.01% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.50% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 2.20% | — |
| ETH ≥ $2,600 | 40.00% | -22.33% |
| Altseason Barometer | 26 | -3.70% |
| Crypto Market Cap | $2.75T | -0.48% |
| US Recession Odds | 6.50% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14 | Core CPI YoY | 2.50 | 2.40 |
| Oct 14 | CPI YoY | 3.60 | 3.40 |