US Recession Odds

Current Value

6.50%

Change

—

Trend

Flat

Source

polymarket

Retrieved: 16.10.2026 21:01 MSK

Value History

2026-09-15 — 2026-10-16 · data points: 15

US Recession Odds chart min 6.50% · max 22.50%

5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

15 Sep 20 Sep 23 Sep 5 Oct 16 Oct

Data table (rows: 15)

Date	Value
2026-10-16	6.50%
2026-10-07	6.50%
2026-10-06	6.50%
2026-10-05	8.00%
2026-09-26	9.50%
2026-09-25	9.50%
2026-09-24	9.50%
2026-09-23	8.50%
2026-09-22	8.50%
2026-09-21	6.50%
2026-09-20	8.00%
2026-09-18	8.50%
2026-09-17	10.50%
2026-09-16	10.50%
2026-09-15	22.50%

Latest AI Analysis

RETURN OF RISK APPETITE

🟢 Positive — Sentiment has improved, but fund demand still lags

Risk appetite is back: the Fear & Greed Index rose from 53 to 63, entering greed territory. Yet bitcoin funds have recorded outflows for a second consecutive day — sentiment is running ahead of demand. Reports of possible escalation around Iran and strikes between Russia and Ukraine keep the risk of higher energy prices and a flight to safety in play. Meanwhile, prediction markets put the probability of a US recession at just 7.5%. The sentiment turnaround is encouraging, but its staying power remains uncertain without renewed fund inflows.

WHAT TO WATCH

A Fear & Greed Index close above 63 on October 17 would confirm further improvement in sentiment. This test would not establish that fund demand has returned.

Read full today's digest