Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 12.02.2026

THE MARKET IS CATCHING ITS BREATH AHEAD OF CPI

🟡 Neutral — macro is easing, but fear in crypto has intensified

The main shift of the day — yields noticeably declined: 10-year treasuries fell to 4.16% (from 4.22% yesterday), real yield is also lower (1.84% vs 1.87%). At the same time, the dollar and VIX are unchanged (DXY 118.24; VIX 17.79), meaning the backdrop is rather “quiet,” and the drop in yields looks like a cushion for risk assets ahead of tomorrow’s CPI (expectation 2.5% y/y).

In crypto the picture is mixed: the pace of BTC’s decline weakened (over 24 hours about -0.8% vs -3.2% yesterday), and weekly dynamics became less negative, but sentiment fell deeper into extreme fear (index 5). An important plus — the weekly flow balance in BTC-ETFs almost reached zero (about -6.5 mln vs -683 mln yesterday), although ETF assets under management continue to decline (87.75 bln). Hence the conclusion: selling is losing momentum, but there is still no sign of sustainable demand — the market remains vulnerable to sharp moves on the data.

WHAT TO WATCH

1) Tomorrow’s CPI: the reaction of the dollar and yields will set the tone for 1–3 days.
2) Flows in BTC-ETFs: whether the weekly total can move into a sustained plus.
3) The 70k zone for BTC: a return above will reduce the risk of “wicks” on the news.