Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 17.08.2026
NeutralTHREE DAYS OF OUTFLOWS
🟡 Neutral — Outflows are limiting improvement in the neutral regime
BTC funds have lost capital for a third consecutive session: the neutral backdrop is improving, but sustained crypto demand has yet to emerge. Meanwhile, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 has risen from 20% to 30%—expectations are recovering ahead of actual fund flows. Geopolitical risks involving Israel, Lebanon, Russia, and Ukraine are keeping investors cautious, while the market puts the probability of a Fed rate cut at just 1.6%. Until the funds return to inflows, the improvement will remain fragile.
WHAT TO WATCH
A daily BTC fund flow above zero on August 18 would provide the first confirmation that demand is returning; continued outflows would leave the improvement without support from fund flows.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 119.06 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.63% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.15% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.39% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.30% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 14.63 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.48% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.24% | +0.18% |
| BTC Price | $63,487 | +1.05% |
| BTC Return 24h | 0.72% | +284.62% |
| BTC Return 7d | -2.27% | +32.24% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 21.76% | -0.41% |
| Fear & Greed | 31 | -8.82% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.76T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $963.95B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.25B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.16T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,795.80B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -$57.63M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -$389.71M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $76.61B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,785.76 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $75.40B | +0.40% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $301.80B | +0.03% |
| USDT Peg | $0.9993 | +0.01% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 1.60% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 0.30% | -25.00% |
| ETH Milestone | 3.80% | +1,800.00% |
| Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | 0.70% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19 | FOMC Minutes | — | — |