Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 19.08.2026
NeutralETF DEMAND RETURNS
🟢 Positive — ETF demand is back, but external risk-off is limiting momentum
Daily BTC ETF flows reversed from -58 to +189, while the weekly balance swung from -390 to +237. Institutional demand has returned, creating a source of support for bitcoin.
Sentiment improved, with the Fear & Greed Index rising from 31 to 46. At the same time, higher yields and oil prices amid escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are hanging over the market. The probability of a Fed rate cut is priced at just 1.2%, keeping the external backdrop tight.
The counterpoint is a 1.2% drop in the S&P 500. For now, positive daily and weekly flows are separating bitcoin demand from the broader risk-off move, but that divergence could close quickly unless inflows continue.
WHAT TO WATCH
On August 20, daily BTC ETF flows need to remain above zero to confirm that demand is durable. With oil elevated and a geopolitical premium in place, a series of inflows matters more than a one-off reversal.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.90 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.72% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.19% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.44% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.30% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 15.19 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.53% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 56.48% | -0.28% |
| BTC Price | $64,454 | -0.21% |
| BTC Return 24h | 0.53% | -1.85% |
| BTC Return 7d | 0.60% | -62.96% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 21.94% | -3.35% |
| Fear & Greed | 46 | +12.20% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.76T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $963.95B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.16B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.16T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,795.90B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | $189.30M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $236.93M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $79.30B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,691.76 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $76.20B | — |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $302.00B | +0.07% |
| USDT Peg | $0.9993 | -0.01% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 1.20% | -7.69% |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 0.20% | — |
| ETH ≥ $2,100 | 20.50% | +5.13% |
| Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.90% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19 | FOMC Minutes | — | — |