Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 21.08.2026
Risk OnRISK-ON CONTINUATION
🟢 Positive — BTC’s rise reinforced the existing positive regime
There is no new regime: BTC gained nearly 8% to 74,974, and a close above that level on August 22 would confirm the move’s continuation. The risk of a hawkish Fed still hangs over the market, with rate-cut odds at just 1.5%, but ETF inflows and the US regulatory agenda continue to support demand for now.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.90 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.65% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.19% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.35% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.30% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 14.89 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.46% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 59.11% | +0.73% |
| BTC Price | $74,974 | +3.15% |
| BTC Return 24h | 7.94% | +58.80% |
| BTC Return 7d | 18.37% | +26.25% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 42.98% | +18.04% |
| Fear & Greed | 72 | +16.13% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.75T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $953.61B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.23B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.16T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,791.86B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | $517.19M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $815.28M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $84.31B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,641.16 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $84.90B | +1.07% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $302.60B | +0.03% |
| USDT Peg | $0.9995 | -0.01% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 1.50% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 1.20% | — |
| ETH ≥ $2,500 | 48.60% | +6.35% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19 | FOMC Minutes | — | — |