Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 20.08.2026
Risk OnVOLATILITY SPIKE
🟢 Positive — Demand strengthened, but the sharp rise in volatility increased the risk of a pullback
Daily BTC ETF inflows accelerated from 189 to 517, while bitcoin gained 7.76%, rising from 64,454 to 69,458. Buying pressure was concentrated in BTC.
The transmission channel is direct: ETF inflows support spot demand, but the rise in 30-day volatility from 21.94% to 34.38% raises the cost of being wrong. BTC dominance climbed from 56.48% to 58.26%, showing that demand remains concentrated in bitcoin. Regulatory clarity in the US is supporting risk appetite, although the probability of a Fed rate cut is just 1.6%; the Fear & Greed Index at 62 already signals greed.
There are two scenarios from here. A close above 69,458 would preserve the momentum, while a move below that level would increase the risk of a pullback after the sharp rally.
WHAT TO WATCH
A close above 69,458 on August 21 would confirm continued momentum; below that level, the market would shift to the pullback scenario. Rising BTC dominance points to concentrated demand.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.90 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.71% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.19% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.41% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.30% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 15.84 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.52% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 58.26% | +2.97% |
| BTC Price | $69,458 | +0.34% |
| BTC Return 24h | 8.05% | +13.38% |
| BTC Return 7d | 9.15% | -0.97% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 34.38% | +4.34% |
| Fear & Greed | 62 | +34.78% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.76T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $963.95B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.32B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.16T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,795.73B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | $517.19M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $815.28M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $84.31B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,707.98 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $81.90B | +0.37% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $302.10B | — |
| USDT Peg | $0.9994 | -0.02% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 1.60% | +6.67% |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 0.80% | +100.00% |
| ETH ≥ $2,400 | 42.70% | -8.37% |
| Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 0.90% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19 | FOMC Minutes | — | — |