Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 22.08.2026
Risk OnBROADENING RALLY
🟢 Positive — Capital is rotating from BTC into the broader crypto market
BTC dominance fell from 59.11% to 58.25%, while DeFi TVL rose from 84.9 to 88.6. Bitcoin’s 24-hour return slowed from 7.94% to 4.63%, but the capital flows point to rotation rather than a move out of risk. Risk appetite has held for three days, with the Fear & Greed Index at 71, while prediction markets put the probability of ETH trading at or above $2,700 at 48.2%; expectations of greater regulatory clarity and spot demand continue to support the broader market.
WHAT TO WATCH
BTC dominance needs to remain below 59.11% through August 23. A sustained decline would confirm that the rotation is continuing.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.90 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.69% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.19% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.35% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.30% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 16.01 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.50% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 58.25% | -1.24% |
| BTC Price | $78,473 | +0.03% |
| BTC Return 24h | 4.63% | -41.61% |
| BTC Return 7d | 24.43% | -1.69% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 44.97% | +1.38% |
| Fear & Greed | 71 | -1.39% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.75T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $953.61B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.20B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.16T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,791.89B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | $606.29M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $1,552.70M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $90.16B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,674.37 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $88.60B | +1.84% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $303.90B | +0.36% |
| USDT Peg | $0.9998 | +0.01% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 1.30% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 2.10% | +16.67% |
| ETH ≥ $2,700 | 48.20% | -6.77% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19 | FOMC Minutes | — | — |