Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 23.08.2026
Risk OnBTC DOMINANCE RISE
🔴 Negative — BTC returns have turned negative, sentiment is deteriorating, and volatility is rising
BTC’s 24-hour return swung from 4.6% to −2.5%, while its dominance rose from 58.3% to 59.4%: the pullback is shifting capital out of riskier coins and into the leading cryptocurrency. A fifth consecutive day of inflows into BTC funds shows that demand remains intact, but does not yet reverse the near-term defensive rotation. Tariff and geopolitical risks, along with the Fed chair’s Jackson Hole speech, continue to hang over the market; with rate-cut odds at just 1.7%, there is room for a reaction to dovish rhetoric. The Fear & Greed Index remains in greed territory at 66, so for now this is a rotation within crypto rather than a wholesale retreat from risk.
WHAT TO WATCH
A close in BTC dominance above 59.44% on August 24 will be the next test. Holding above that level would confirm that the defensive rotation is continuing.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.90 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.69% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.19% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.35% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.30% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 16.01 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.50% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 59.44% | +1.04% |
| BTC Price | $76,585 | -0.53% |
| BTC Return 24h | -2.47% | -37.22% |
| BTC Return 7d | 21.50% | -2.58% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 46.17% | +3.59% |
| Fear & Greed | 66 | -7.04% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.75T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $953.61B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.20B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.16T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,791.89B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | $307.45M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $1,917.79M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $96.07B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,674.37 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $91.70B | +2.57% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $304.10B | — |
| USDT Peg | $0.9998 | -0.01% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 1.70% | +6.25% |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 0.50% | -68.75% |
| ETH ≥ $2,600 | 33.60% | -20.19% |