Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 25.08.2026
Risk OnINSTITUTIONAL MOMENTUM
🟢 Positive — Price and fund demand are rising despite weakness in DeFi
Bitcoin gained 4.45% and moved above 80,000. Bitcoin ETF assets rose 2.59%, while fund inflows extended to a sixth consecutive day. Institutional demand remains the rally’s main driver.
Risk appetite remains intact, even though the probability of a Fed rate cut is just 1.3%. Fidelity’s approval to use staking supports interest in crypto funds, while US-Canada trade tensions and sanctions against Iran pose risks through inflation and oil.
The rally remains narrow: DeFi TVL fell by almost 4%. This limits participation across the broader crypto market but does not negate demand for Bitcoin through regulated funds.
WHAT TO WATCH
A close above 80,282 on August 26 would confirm that momentum is holding. The second filter is continued inflows into Bitcoin funds.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.06 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.74% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.24% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.40% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.30% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 15.13 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.50% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 59.26% | +0.37% |
| BTC Price | $80,282 | +1.98% |
| BTC Return 24h | 4.36% | +175.95% |
| BTC Return 7d | 25.17% | +11.67% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 47.29% | +7.58% |
| Fear & Greed | 74 | +1.37% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.75T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $953.61B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.38B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.16T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,791.71B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | $337.56M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $1,957.79M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $98.56B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,652.86 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $89.20B | +1.36% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $304.50B | +0.03% |
| USDT Peg | $0.9998 | — |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 1.30% | -13.33% |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 1.50% | — |
| ETH ≥ $2,700 | 35.40% | -38.97% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.60 | 3.70 |