Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 26.08.2026
NeutralINFLOW ABSORPTION
🟡 Neutral — Inflows persist, but price momentum and risk appetite have weakened
BTC funds have recorded inflows for seven consecutive days, yet BTC declined over the past 24 hours. The buyer is there, but the price is not moving: institutional demand is still only absorbing selling pressure, while the market backdrop has shifted from risk-on to neutral.
The Fear & Greed Index remains in greed territory at 65, but it is lagging the market’s deterioration. Crypto also faces a hawkish contingent at the Fed, trade tensions, and escalation risk around Iran. The probability of a rate cut is just 1.6%, so the market expects little near-term support from dollar liquidity.
ETH offers a counterpoint: the probability of holding at or above $2,600 has risen from roughly 35% to 47%. That preserves some localized optimism, but it does not yet offset BTC’s weak response to sustained fund demand.
WHAT TO WATCH
A BTC close above $80,282 on August 27 would show that inflows have started moving the price. Confirmation would require continued inflows into BTC funds.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.06 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.70% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.24% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.38% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.30% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 15.85 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.46% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 59.25% | +0.03% |
| BTC Price | $78,825 | -0.10% |
| BTC Return 24h | -1.88% | -687.50% |
| BTC Return 7d | 22.65% | +2.58% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 48.14% | +9.83% |
| Fear & Greed | 65 | -12.16% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.75T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $953.61B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.41B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.22T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,791.68B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | $314.37M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $2,082.86M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $99.05B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,677.28 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $88.10B | +0.69% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $304.90B | -0.03% |
| USDT Peg | $0.9999 | +0.01% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 1.60% | +6.67% |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 1.00% | -23.08% |
| ETH ≥ $2,600 | 46.80% | +372.73% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.60 | 3.70 |