Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 27.08.2026
Risk OnMOMENTUM COOLING
🟡 Neutral — The rally is weakening, but fund demand remains intact
The BTC rally is losing momentum. Its weekly return has fallen from nearly 23% to 13.41%, while annualized 30-day volatility has eased from around 48% to 46%. The price is still rising, but the move is becoming more subdued.
Inflation and Fed expectations continue to hang over the market: the probability of a rate cut is just 1.5%, so investors are not counting on near-term monetary policy support. Progress on crypto-custody regulation is supporting demand, while risks to oil refining could add to the inflation premium.
The counterpoint is that inflows into BTC funds have now continued for an eighth straight day. This is helping to prevent a sharp pullback, but has yet to restore momentum in price and volatility.
WHAT TO WATCH
A close on August 28 with BTC’s weekly return below 13.41% would confirm further cooling. Sustained inflows into BTC funds could halt the process.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.06 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.64% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.17% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.32% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.30% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 15.45 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.47% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 59.15% | +0.10% |
| BTC Price | $78,760 | +0.11% |
| BTC Return 24h | -0.07% | +73.08% |
| BTC Return 7d | 13.41% | -1.83% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 46.37% | +8.24% |
| Fear & Greed | 71 | +9.23% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.75T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $953.61B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.70B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.22T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,791.39B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | $232.12M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $1,797.79M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $98.63B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,675.70 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $88.40B | +0.57% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $305.70B | +0.13% |
| USDT Peg | $0.9999 | -0.01% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 1.50% | +7.14% |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 0.40% | -20.00% |
| ETH ≥ $2,700 | 22.80% | -8.43% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.60 | 3.70 |