Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 02.09.2026
NeutralDAILY ETF OUTFLOW
🔴 Negative — A daily ETF outflow coincided with a negative BTC return
The return of institutional demand has failed to take hold: daily ETF flow swung from roughly +217 to -236, while Bitcoin’s 24-hour return fell from 1.41% to -1.5%. Seven-day flow remains positive but declined from roughly 804 to 253, signaling weakening demand momentum. Attacks on US bases and inflation risks are hanging over the market: the former could intensify risk-off sentiment, although the Fear & Greed Index remains in greed territory at 63, while the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 is estimated at just 3.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH
On September 3, daily ETF flow needs to close above zero to confirm that demand is returning. Escalation around US bases could reinforce the broader risk-off move.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.75 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.75% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.34% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.44% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.30% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 14.92 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.41% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 59.11% | -0.02% |
| BTC Price | $77,521 | +0.39% |
| BTC Return 24h | -1.50% | +11.76% |
| BTC Return 7d | -1.64% | +21.90% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 47.26% | +7.58% |
| Fear & Greed | 63 | -8.70% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.73T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $950.74B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.73B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.22T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,779.44B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -$236.46M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $252.79M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $97.12B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,631.47 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $85.40B | -0.23% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $305.10B | -0.10% |
| USDT Peg | $0.9995 | -0.02% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.70% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 3.20% | — |
| ETH ≥ $2,600 | 0.10% | — |
| Altseason Barometer | 25 | +13.64% |
| Crypto Market Cap | $2.63T | +0.27% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4 | Non-Farm Payrolls | 58.00 | -23.00 |