Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 03.09.2026
NeutralLOCAL RISK APPETITE
🟢 Positive — demand has returned, but yields are limiting the upside.
Crypto is seeing a local return of risk appetite: daily BTC ETF flows reversed from −236 to 101, while the probability of ETH reaching $2,900 jumped from 0.1% to 17%. However, U.S. yields have reached a nearly three-year high as oil prices rise, while geopolitics and trade barriers are keeping inflation risks elevated. For now, the improvement remains crypto-specific rather than evidence of a broader easing in financial conditions.
WHAT TO WATCH
On September 4, daily BTC ETF flows need to close above zero. Confirmation requires inflows to persist despite pressure from yields.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 118.75 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.79% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.39% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.44% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.30% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.47% | — |
| VIX | 16.34 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.40% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 59.05% | -0.02% |
| BTC Price | $77,717 | +0.92% |
| BTC Return 24h | 0.25% | +180.65% |
| BTC Return 7d | -1.33% | +38.71% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 47.06% | +6.88% |
| Fear & Greed | 65 | +3.17% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.73T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $950.74B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.53B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.22T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,779.64B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | $101.15M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $121.82M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $97.22B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,666.60 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $85.50B | +0.23% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $305.10B | — |
| USDT Peg | $0.9997 | — |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.70% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 2.90% | +3.57% |
| ETH ≥ $2,900 | 17.00% | +1,316.67% |
| Altseason Barometer | 28 | +12.00% |
| Crypto Market Cap | $2.64T | +0.88% |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4 | Non-Farm Payrolls | 56.00 | 21.00 |