Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 30.09.2026
Risk OffFADING ETF MOMENTUM
🟡 Neutral — ETF momentum is weakening, while the market remains risk-off.
Seven-day BTC ETF flows fell from roughly $2.39 billion to $769 million. Support for Bitcoin is fading, and the improvement in broader market conditions is not yet enough to shift the market out of risk-off mode.
Rising Treasury yields are already outweighing inflows into crypto funds. U.S.-Canada trade restrictions are adding pressure by threatening to fuel inflation and weaken risk appetite, although expectations of a Fed pause soften the picture. U.S. recession odds stand at 9.5%, while the Fear and Greed Index remains in greed territory at 71 — sentiment is proving notably more resilient than price momentum.
The counterpoint is that money has flowed into BTC funds for nine consecutive days. Demand remains intact, but the sharp decline in seven-day flows shows that its strength is fading.
WHAT TO WATCH
A close in seven-day flows below 769.35 by October 1 would confirm that ETF momentum is fading further. An extension of the inflow streak would soften the signal but would not reverse the loss of momentum.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 120.33 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.24% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.92% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.90% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.35% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.45% | — |
| VIX | 16.07 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.32% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 58.26% | -0.15% |
| BTC Price | $83,273 | -0.37% |
| BTC Return 24h | 0.28% | +250.00% |
| BTC Return 7d | -3.95% | -33.90% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 35.37% | -15.40% |
| Fear & Greed | 71 | -2.74% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.75T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $977.08B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $11.45B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.34T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,759.17B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | $66.19M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $769.35M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $107.96B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,670.84 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $94.80B | -0.32% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $307.80B | +0.03% |
| USDT Peg | $0.9996 | -0.01% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.70% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 0.10% | — |
| ETH ≥ $2,800 | 5.00% | -28.57% |
| Altseason Barometer | 30 | — |
| Crypto Market Cap | $2.86T | -0.38% |
| US Recession Odds | 9.50% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| Oct 2 | Non-Farm Payrolls | 90.00 | 133.00 |