Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 01.10.2026
NeutralNEUTRAL REGIME
🟡 Neutral — Conditions improved, but ETF demand shifted to a net outflow
US inflation cooling to 3.4% in August while spending rose 0.9% eased expectations for Fed rates. The market moved from risk-off to neutral, but the macro relief has yet to generate crypto-specific demand.
Daily BTC ETF flow reversed from roughly 66 to −149. Buyers disappeared just as the broader backdrop became calmer: without renewed inflows, the neutral regime is more likely to limit pressure than trigger a rally.
Fresh highs in Treasury yields are preventing softer inflation expectations from translating into ETF demand. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index at 74 signals greed, while the probability of a US recession stands at 9.5%—there is no broad fear, but expensive money remains a drag. Bitwise’s new Chainlink ETF filing is supporting interest in altcoins, although it does not offset weak BTC flows.
WHAT TO WATCH
By the October 2 close, daily BTC ETF flow needs to rise above −148.69. Confirmation would be a sustained neutral regime alongside easing ETF outflows.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 120.33 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.26% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.89% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.91% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.35% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.45% | — |
| VIX | 16.04 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.37% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 58.26% | -0.07% |
| BTC Price | $83,460 | -0.24% |
| BTC Return 24h | 0.13% | +30.00% |
| BTC Return 7d | -1.05% | — |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 36.16% | -13.53% |
| Fear & Greed | 74 | +4.23% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.75T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $977.08B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $11.54B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.34T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,759.08B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -$148.69M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | $273.69M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $107.98B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,651.54 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $94.90B | — |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $307.70B | — |
| USDT Peg | $0.9995 | -0.01% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.70% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 0.10% | — |
| ETH ≥ $4,000 | 0.10% | -90.00% |
| Altseason Barometer | 30 | — |
| Crypto Market Cap | $2.88T | +0.15% |
| US Recession Odds | 9.50% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| Oct 2 | Non-Farm Payrolls | 90.00 | 133.00 |