Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 11.10.2026
Risk OnFED EXPECTATIONS REPRICING
🔴 Negative — Easing expectations are fading as BTC fund outflows continue
Support for crypto is weakening: the probability of a Fed rate cut has fallen from 60% to 50%, while bitcoin funds have seen outflows for a second consecutive day. Hopes for cheaper money are fading just as fund demand retreats. The Houthi attack on Riyadh airport and Iran’s rebuilding of its arsenal add risks of higher oil prices and a shift away from risk assets. Yet prediction markets put the probability of a US recession at just 6.5%, suggesting a deep economic downturn is not the main concern for now. Nor is there a wholesale retreat from crypto risk: the probability of ETH reaching $2,700 has risen from 70% to 80%. Pressure has increased, but expectations across crypto assets remain mixed.
WHAT TO WATCH
A Fear and Greed Index close below 61 on October 12 would confirm cooling sentiment. On its own, however, it would not prove that the repricing of Fed expectations caused the shift.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 121.38 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.22% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.75% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.87% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.75% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.35% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.45% | — |
| VIX | 15.41 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.47% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 59.12% | +0.03% |
| BTC Price | $82,953 | -0.08% |
| BTC Return 24h | 0.40% | -27.27% |
| BTC Return 7d | -2.18% | -5.83% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 34.39% | -10.26% |
| Fear & Greed | 61 | -4.69% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.75T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $880.25B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.30B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.34T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,867.05B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -$244.13M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -$512.38M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $104.91B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,811.54 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $92.30B | -0.11% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $306.80B | -0.07% |
| USDT Peg | $0.9992 | — |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.50% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 3.20% | — |
| ETH ≥ $2,700 | 0.80% | -63.64% |
| Altseason Barometer | 26 | -7.14% |
| Crypto Market Cap | $2.81T | -0.12% |
| US Recession Odds | 6.50% | — |