Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 12.10.2026
Risk OnBITCOIN OPTIMISM
🟡 Neutral — Sentiment is improving, but outflows from BTC funds persist
Optimism is building: the Fear & Greed Index rose from 61 to 69, while bitcoin’s share of the crypto market increased from 59.1% to 59.7%. Yet BTC funds recorded a second consecutive day of outflows: stronger sentiment and BTC’s relative strength are not yet backed by demand through funds. Attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and on Riyadh airport keep the risks of higher oil prices and a retreat from risk assets in play. Expectations of another Fed rate hike also constrain risk appetite, although prediction markets put the probability of a US recession at just 6.5%. Bitcoin is strengthening its position within the crypto market, but it is too early to call a return of capital.
WHAT TO WATCH
A BTC dominance close above 59.66% on October 13 would confirm further relative strengthening. But rising dominance alone does not prove capital inflows — that would require an end to outflows from BTC funds.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 121.38 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.22% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.75% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.87% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.75% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.35% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.45% | — |
| VIX | 15.41 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.47% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 59.66% | +0.12% |
| BTC Price | $84,066 | +0.59% |
| BTC Return 24h | 1.34% | +100.00% |
| BTC Return 7d | -1.71% | +48.02% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 34.60% | -9.75% |
| Fear & Greed | 69 | +13.11% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.75T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $880.25B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.30B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.34T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,867.05B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -$244.13M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -$512.38M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $104.91B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,811.54 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $92.90B | +0.11% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $308.10B | +0.16% |
| USDT Peg | $0.9992 | — |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.80% | -11.11% |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 3.20% | — |
| ETH ≥ $3,200 | 7.10% | +14.52% |
| Altseason Barometer | 24 | +9.09% |
| Crypto Market Cap | $2.83T | +0.62% |
| US Recession Odds | 6.50% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14 | Core CPI YoY | 2.50 | 2.40 |
| Oct 14 | CPI YoY | 3.60 | 3.40 |