Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 13.10.2026
Risk OnCOOLING RISK APPETITE
🔴 Negative — BTC’s decline is accompanied by a marked cooling in crypto market sentiment.
Risk appetite is weakening: bitcoin’s daily return flipped from +1.3% to −0.8%, while the Fear & Greed Index fell from 69 to 57. Price and sentiment are deteriorating together, although the index remains in greed territory. Attacks on Riyadh and expanded EU sanctions against Russia are sustaining the geopolitical risk premium, while a strong dollar adds pressure on risk assets. Meanwhile, prediction markets put the probability of a US recession at just 6.5%. The broader regime remains risk-on: this is cooling demand for risk, not a confirmed shift to risk-off.
WHAT TO WATCH
If the Fear & Greed Index closes below 57 on October 14, that would signal further cooling in sentiment. As long as the broader regime remains risk-on, it is premature to conclude that the deterioration runs deep.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 121.38 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.22% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.75% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.87% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.75% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.35% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.45% | — |
| VIX | 14.84 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.47% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 59.30% | +0.07% |
| BTC Price | $83,395 | +1.46% |
| BTC Return 24h | -0.79% | +52.12% |
| BTC Return 7d | -2.57% | +40.65% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 34.78% | -10.66% |
| Fear & Greed | 57 | -17.39% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.75T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $880.25B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.30B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.34T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,867.05B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -$244.13M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -$512.38M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $104.91B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,807.24 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $91.30B | -0.76% |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $307.80B | -0.03% |
| USDT Peg | $0.9991 | -0.01% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.70% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 2.50% | — |
| ETH ≥ $2,600 | 0.10% | -85.71% |
| Altseason Barometer | 26 | -3.70% |
| Crypto Market Cap | $2.82T | +0.69% |
| US Recession Odds | 6.50% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14 | Core CPI YoY | 2.50 | 2.40 |
| Oct 14 | CPI YoY | 3.60 | 3.40 |