Crypto Macro Pulse — Real-Time Indicators & AI Market Analysis — 14.10.2026
Risk OnRATE OPTIMISM
🟢 Positive — Expectations of steady rates support a recovery in risk appetite
Markets have taken heart from expectations of no further Fed rate hikes, rather than imminent easing. Following Williams’s comments, bitcoin approached $84,000, while the Fear & Greed Index rose from 57 to 62. Yet the probability of a rate cut declined: a pause supports demand for risk assets, but offers no promise of cheaper money. The strike on Saudi Aramco’s headquarters leaves a risk of higher oil prices and a larger geopolitical premium, which could weaken the crypto market’s recovery. Pending inflation data also temper optimism, as they will test how well expectations of steady rates hold up.
WHAT TO WATCH
A bitcoin close above $84,000 by October 15 will test the recovery’s staying power. Holding above that level would confirm the price response, but not a future rate cut.
All Indicators
| Event | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 121.60 | — |
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.24% | — |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.80% | — |
| US 10Y TIPS (Real Yield) | 2.91% | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.75% | — |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.35% | — |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.45% | — |
| VIX | 15.21 | — |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | 0.44% | — |
| BTC Dominance | 59.26% | -0.03% |
| BTC Price | $83,719 | +0.31% |
| BTC Return 24h | 0.41% | -74.69% |
| BTC Return 7d | -0.44% | +81.82% |
| BTC Vol 30d (ann.) | 34.77% | -11.14% |
| Fear & Greed | 62 | +8.77% |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.75T | — |
| Treasury General Account | $880.25B | — |
| Reverse Repo | $0.28B | — |
| M2 Money Supply | $23.34T | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,867.07B | — |
| BTC ETF Daily Flow | -$244.13M | — |
| BTC ETF 7d Flow | -$512.38M | — |
| BTC ETF AUM | $104.91B | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,805.45 | — |
| DeFi TVL | $91.50B | — |
| Stablecoin Market Cap | $307.90B | — |
| USDT Peg | $0.9994 | +0.01% |
| Fed Rate Cut Odds | 0.60% | — |
| BTC $100k Milestone | 2.30% | +4.55% |
| ETH ≥ $4,500 | 5.00% | — |
| Altseason Barometer | 27 | — |
| Crypto Market Cap | $2.84T | +0.44% |
| US Recession Odds | 6.50% | — |
Economic Events
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14 | Core CPI YoY | 2.50 | 2.40 |
| Oct 14 | CPI YoY | 3.60 | 3.40 |