Which Arbitrage Spreads Can You Execute? A Model and Practical Checks

An arbitrage spread is a price difference, not a completed profitable trade. The earlier “1 in 3” headline in this article was too strong: it presented a probability model as the result of counting executable spreads.

What the old “1 in 3” estimate actually means

The original article was published on 17 July 2026. It attributed a catalogue of 23,118 coin–network–exchange entries across seven CEX to 25 June 2026, with 28.9% of withdrawals and 56.2% of deposits disabled. Those separate figures imply 71.1% withdrawal availability and 43.8% deposit availability.

71.1% × 43.8% = 31.1418%, or 31.1% rounded. Multiplication models joint network availability only if the two sides are independent and the selected routes match the populations behind those percentages. The catalogue entries are not a list of matched buy–sell spreads. The calculation includes no withdrawal or trading fee, depth, slippageThe difference between the price shown before confirmation and the execution price. Settings usually specify the maximum allowed deviation; the swap fails if it is exceeded. or actual execution.

We therefore do not claim that 31.1% of particular spreads survived, or that the remaining 68.9% would lose money. The original dated row-level package is not supplied here; today’s tables cannot verify the old percentages or reconstruct those old routes. The figures above preserve the origin of the estimate.

Check a current spread on its own terms

Use the free crypto arbitrage scanner to inspect the buy and sell venues, route status, depth and the costs included in the displayed result. Its current rows are separate from the historical model above.

What a scanner spread measures

For a buy ask A and sell bid B, the gross spread is (B − A) / A × 100%. On an illustrative $1,000 position, a 0.4% gross spread represents $4 before expenses. That number can change with the amount filled and with prices during transfer.

To compare a real direction, match the asset, source, destination and network. A token with the same ticker on another chain or a wrapped asset may not be accepted as the native asset. Then check the available depth and both sides of the transfer.

Withdrawal fees: calculate dollars before choosing a route

A fixed fee matters more on a small position. In a hypothetical $500 position with a 0.4% spread, gross is $2. A $1 withdrawal leaves $1; if the combined buy and sell trading fees are another $1, the result is $0 before slippage. These are selected assumptions, not current exchange tariffs.

Compare the fee for the exact asset representation and network the destination accepts. A cheaper wrapped token does not automatically replace a native coin. The table below helps check current withdrawal costs; confirm the conditions on the exchange before sending.

Network availability: both sides must accept the transfer

The source must allow withdrawal and the destination must accept a deposit for the same asset on the same network. An outage can affect both exchanges, and a network listed on one may not exist on the other. That is why separate availability percentages cannot replace checking their intersection.

Use the network-status tracker and the exact exchange instructions. The historical 28.9% and 56.2% do not rank today’s venues or measure the share of current buy–sell routes that is open.

Depth, slippage and delay can change the outcome

Check enough ask and bid levels for the intended amount. Daily volume is not a guarantee of depth at the displayed price. If the book does not provide enough size, the full order can receive a worse average price.

Withdrawal processing, confirmations and crediting also take time. A positive calculation now can disappear before the sell order. The live result after listed route costs does not include every trading fee, execution loss or price change.

A calculation for your amount

Use the calculator with your amount and stated expenses. Missing costs are unknown, not zero. Its result is conditional on the prices and assumptions you enter; it does not predict realised profit.

Five illustrative outcomes

These chosen examples explain the arithmetic. They are not sampled trades and cannot establish a survival rate. All dollar costs in each row are assumptions; price changes are excluded.

Example	Amount / gross spread	Included expenses	Conditional result
Fixed fee absorbs a small spread	$500 / 0.4% = $2	$1 withdrawal + $1 trading	$0 before slippage
A larger amount dilutes the fixed fee	$2,000 / 0.4% = $8	$1 withdrawal + $4 trading	$3 before slippage
No accepted transfer route	$1,000 / 2% = $20	Source withdrawal or destination deposit closed	No direct transfer on that route
Slippage consumes the surplus	$1,000 / 0.5% = $5	$1 withdrawal + $2 trading + $3 slippage	−$1
Listed expenses leave a surplus	$2,000 / 1% = $20	$2 withdrawal + $4 trading + $4 slippage	$10 if prices stay constant

Two positive illustrative results out of five do not validate “1 in 3”. Measuring a share would require a dated set of specific directions, a fixed amount, the same expense rules and a denominator that includes the rejected directions. Real profit would additionally require execution records.

How to check a spread before transferring funds

Match the asset and the transfer network

Check the exact asset representation and, for a token, its chain and contract. A shared ticker is insufficient; the destination must accept what the source will send.

Check withdrawal and deposit on the chosen route

Verify source withdrawal and destination deposit for that asset and network immediately before sending. An open route elsewhere does not make this route open.

Use bid and ask prices for your amount

Compare the buy ask and sell bid, then inspect enough order-book depth to cover your intended amount. Last-trade prices and daily volume alone do not establish your execution price.

List expenses before calculating the result

Include the route cost, the buy and sell trading fees and a stated slippage assumption. Add any relevant gas, conversion or rebalancing costs. Leave unknown expenses unknown.

Allow for transfer and credit delay

Check confirmations, exchange processing and destination credit requirements. The sell price can change while funds are in transit; a present spread is not a guaranteed future sell price.

Recheck before placing either order

Refresh prices, depth, fees and network status. Decide in advance what to do if the sell price falls below the amount needed to cover your expenses.

Proceed only when the assumptions fit your trade

An arithmetic surplus is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit. Skip the route when identity, access, depth or material expenses cannot be verified.

Funding arbitrage is a separate calculation

FundingPeriodic payments between buyers and sellers of perpetual futures. Buyers pay when the rate is positive; sellers pay when it is negative. This mechanism keeps the contract price closer to the underlying asset price. strategies compare payments between long and short positions. They require each leg’s interval, four trading operations and an explicit capital denominator. An unavailable spot route does not establish the return or suitability of a funding strategy. See the funding-arbitrage comparison and its current assumptions.

Current exports and the historical estimate

Current arbitrage JSON and current network-status JSON can support a new, dated comparison. Save the responses, specify which rows you selected, the reference amount and included expenses. Do not use an open route or a positive value after limited costs as a record of a profitable completed trade.

These changing exports do not reproduce the missing 25 June 2026 package. The arithmetic 0.711 × 0.438 = 0.311418 can be repeated; the old underlying sample and a joint route survival rate cannot be recovered from that arithmetic alone. Data sources and current export conditions are listed on About the data.

Questions about the estimate and the calculation

What percentage of arbitrage spreads actually survives after fees?

This article does not establish that percentage. Its earlier “1 in 3” claim came from 71.1% withdrawal availability multiplied by 43.8% deposit availability: 31.1% under an independence assumption. It is a model of network availability, before costs, not a measured share of executable or profitable spreads.

Where did the 71.1% and 43.8% figures come from?

The original article, published on 17 July 2026, attributed 28.9% disabled withdrawals and 56.2% disabled deposits to a 25 June 2026 catalogue of 23,118 coin–network–exchange entries across seven CEX. Taking the complements gives 71.1% and 43.8%. The original dated row-level package is not supplied here, so these remain attributed historical figures rather than a newly verified sample.

Why does multiplying availability percentages require independence?

For a specific route, the source withdrawal and destination deposit must both be open on the same network for the same asset. Multiplying their separate probabilities gives the joint probability only under independence and a matching selection of routes. Chain outages, shared maintenance and differences in exchange listings can violate those assumptions.

Can today’s public exports reproduce the old estimate?

Current exports let you inspect current spreads and network status. They do not recover the missing 25 June 2026 rows or turn separate coin–network–exchange entries into historical matched buy–sell routes. Save the response and its collection time when making a new comparison.

Does an open transfer route mean the spread is profitable?

No. Check the order-book depth for your amount, the withdrawal cost, both trading fees, slippage and transfer delay. A positive result after the listed route costs can become negative after other expenses or a price change. It is a conditional calculation, not a completed trade.

Is three times the withdrawal fee a break-even requirement?

No. Break-even means that the gross price difference covers all included expenses. A larger buffer is a personal risk assumption, not a universal threshold. For an illustrative $500 position at a 0.4% spread, gross is $2; a $1 withdrawal and $1 combined trading fees leave $0 before slippage.

What does the live table’s result include?

Read the route and the stated reference amount with the displayed result. Yieldo subtracts the costs included in its route calculation; it does not treat that value as realised profit after every trading fee, slippage and price change. Missing route or cost data are not zero costs.

Last updated: 07 October 2026

Crypto trading involves market, exchange and transfer risks. This page explains conditional calculations, not guaranteed earnings. Some exchange links are affiliate links; Yieldo may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.