Macro Pulse Prediction Track Record
Every Macro Pulse issue ends with one falsifiable call: a metric, a threshold, a deadline. Here they all are — the ones that landed and the ones that did not.
All time
Hits
4
Misses
8
No result
4
Hit rate
33.3%
calls verified: 12
September score: 0 hits · 2 misses · 0 no result
A call is closed automatically against the metric value on its deadline. If the series has no reading for that date, the call is marked “no result”: a silent data source counts as neither a hit nor a miss. The hit rate is computed from verified calls only, with the number of no-result calls shown next to it.
By month
| Month | Hits | Misses | No result | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| August 2026 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 40% |
Closed calls
| Deadline | Call | Outcome | Value on deadline | Issue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC 7d return above 0 | Miss | -1.64 | 2026-09-01 | |
| Fear & Greed below 62 | Miss | 69 | 2026-08-31 | |
| BTC dominance stays above 59.49 | Hit | 59.64 | 2026-08-30 | |
| daily BTC ETF flow crosses above 0 | No result | — | 2026-08-29 | |
| BTC price above 79,658.43 | Miss | 77,645.55 | 2026-08-28 | |
| BTC 7d return below 13.41 | Hit | 6.24 | 2026-08-27 | |
| BTC price above 80,281.88 | Miss | 78,760.49 | 2026-08-26 | |
| BTC price above 80,281.88 | Miss | 78,824.81 | 2026-08-25 | |
| BTC price above 76,861.47 | Hit | 80,281.88 | 2026-08-24 | |
| BTC dominance above 59.44 | Miss | 59.15 | 2026-08-23 | |
| BTC dominance stays below 59.11 | Miss | 59.44 | 2026-08-22 | |
| BTC price above 69,457.92 | Hit | 74,973.53 | 2026-08-20 | |
| daily BTC ETF flow stays above 0 | No result | — | 2026-08-19 | |
| daily BTC ETF flow above 0 | No result | — | 2026-08-17 | |
| daily BTC ETF flow above 0 | No result | — | 2026-08-16 | |
| BTC price above 64,000 | Miss | 63,041.12 | 2026-08-15 |