Macro Pulse Prediction Track Record
Every Macro Pulse issue ends with one falsifiable call: a metric, a threshold, a deadline. Here they all are — the ones that landed and the ones that did not.
All time
Hits
8
Misses
23
No result
10
Hit rate
25.8%
calls verified: 31
October score: 2 hits · 10 misses · 3 no result
A call is closed automatically against the metric value on its deadline. If the series has no reading for that date, the call is marked “no result”: a silent data source counts as neither a hit nor a miss. The hit rate is computed from verified calls only, with the number of no-result calls shown next to it.
By month
| Month | Hits | Misses | No result | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 16.7% |
| September 2026 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 22.2% |
| August 2026 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 40% |
Closed calls
| Deadline | Call | Outcome | Value on deadline | Issue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fear & Greed above 63 | Miss | 55 | 2026-10-16 | |
| BTC price below 83,718.63 | Hit | 82,070.17 | 2026-10-15 | |
| BTC price above 84,000 | Miss | 81,566.02 | 2026-10-14 | |
| Fear & Greed below 57 | Miss | 62 | 2026-10-13 | |
| BTC dominance above 59.66 | Miss | 59.3 | 2026-10-12 | |
| Fear & Greed below 61 | Miss | 69 | 2026-10-11 | |
| stablecoin market cap above 307.2 | Miss | 306.8 | 2026-10-10 | |
| stablecoin market cap below 298.8 | Miss | 307.2 | 2026-10-09 | |
| Fear & Greed below 64 | Hit | 59 | 2026-10-08 | |
| BTC price above 84,082 | Miss | 82,594.21 | 2026-10-07 | |
| daily BTC ETF flow below -89.9 | No result | — | 2026-10-06 | |
| BTC 30d volatility below 34.2 | Miss | 34.2 | 2026-10-05 | |
| BTC price above 86,576.82 | Miss | 84,565.09 | 2026-10-02 | |
| daily BTC ETF flow above -148.69 | No result | — | 2026-10-01 | |
| 7d BTC ETF flow below 769.35 | No result | — | 2026-09-30 | |
| BTC 7d return stays below 0 | Hit | -3.95 | 2026-09-29 | |
| BTC 30d volatility above 36.94 | Miss | 35.12 | 2026-09-28 | |
| Fear & Greed below 70 | Miss | 74 | 2026-09-27 | |
| daily BTC ETF flow stays above 134.47 | No result | — | 2026-09-26 | |
| BTC price above 87,171.58 | Miss | 83,963.74 | 2026-09-25 | |
| BTC price above 87,171.58 | Miss | 84,180.34 | 2026-09-24 | |
| BTC dominance above 58.84 | Miss | 58.76 | 2026-09-22 | |
| BTC dominance stays below 59.05 | Hit | 58.92 | 2026-09-19 | |
| daily BTC ETF flow above 0 | No result | — | 2026-09-03 | |
| daily BTC ETF flow above 0 | No result | — | 2026-09-02 | |
| BTC 7d return above 0 | Miss | -1.64 | 2026-09-01 | |
| Fear & Greed below 62 | Miss | 69 | 2026-08-31 | |
| BTC dominance stays above 59.49 | Hit | 59.64 | 2026-08-30 | |
| daily BTC ETF flow crosses above 0 | No result | — | 2026-08-29 | |
| BTC price above 79,658.43 | Miss | 77,645.55 | 2026-08-28 | |
| BTC 7d return below 13.41 | Hit | 6.24 | 2026-08-27 | |
| BTC price above 80,281.88 | Miss | 78,760.49 | 2026-08-26 | |
| BTC price above 80,281.88 | Miss | 78,824.81 | 2026-08-25 | |
| BTC price above 76,861.47 | Hit | 80,281.88 | 2026-08-24 | |
| BTC dominance above 59.44 | Miss | 59.15 | 2026-08-23 | |
| BTC dominance stays below 59.11 | Miss | 59.44 | 2026-08-22 | |
| BTC price above 69,457.92 | Hit | 74,973.53 | 2026-08-20 | |
| daily BTC ETF flow stays above 0 | No result | — | 2026-08-19 | |
| daily BTC ETF flow above 0 | No result | — | 2026-08-17 | |
| daily BTC ETF flow above 0 | No result | — | 2026-08-16 | |
| BTC price above 64,000 | Miss | 63,041.12 | 2026-08-15 |